30 day forecast bar harbor maine3/10/2023 MVFR in possible in light snow Tue night, becoming VFR Wednesday afternoon and evening. MVFR/IFR with low clouds and possible fog and rain or rain/snow mixed. Small possibility of freezing drizzle at GNR, PQI, CAR, and FVE. VFR early, becoming MVFR and possibly IFR late, especially Downeast. Either way, can't argue much with this weather pattern if you are snow-lover.ĪVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. There is the potential that the area could be too far in the cold air to get the full brunt of some of the systems, especially once we get to Thu and beyond as temps trend colder and easily below average. Storm systems will tend to be snow rather than rain in this weather pattern. Could even be a third system roughly late Sat/early Sun. Models do tend to have a weaker system around Tuesday night and then a potentially stronger system roughly late Thu/early Fri. Timing of systems in this pattern will be very tough. This sets up a very active pattern with a weather system every couple days. Very strong west to east upper level jet over the northern tier of the CONUS through next weekend, with a strong thermal gradient generally just of us with us generally in the colder air on the north side of the gradient. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Models are in very good agreement through Tuesday. Highs Tuesday low to mid 20s north and mid 30s Downeast.įorecast Confidence. High pressure very briefly moves overhead during the day Tuesday, but high clouds already begin increasing in the afternoon ahead of the next system, as very fast, progressive westerly flow sets up over the region thanks to a strong upper level jet. Temps fall Mon night to 5 to 15 above in the north and low to mid 20s Downeast. Don't anticipate anything as severe as a snow squall with the front. Could be some showers (mainly as snow) with and just behind the front and mainly in the north, but nothing significant and any snow accumulation will be less than an inch. Cold front passes through from NW to SE in the evening to pre-dawn hours. Though there will be some low level moisture/clouds ahead of the front, all the deeper moisture ahead of the front will be shunted off to our east, so any prefrontal precip will be really light. Still will be under S flow ahead of an approaching cold front and upper trough to the west. Any freezing drizzle early Monday should quickly end as temps warm above freezing everywhere, to around 40 in the north and mid 40s Downeast. Temps will be slowly rising through the night. Main areas that will still be below freezing and perhaps subject to this freezing drizzle will be along the Central Highlands N into Northern Aroostook. A concern with the marine layer is the possibility of a little bit of freezing drizzle as the cloud layer will be low, and all warmer than about -4C or -5C, thus clouds will contain just supercooled water. Clouds could be low enough to be fog, especially on hilltops. With the S breeze, we will also see a developing marine layer of low clouds Downeast, advecting north. Increasingly mild low level S flow with temps slowly rising through the night as an upper trough approaches. Increasing clouds are expected during the afternoon with temperatures warming to near or above freezing. Sunday: Return southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen on Sunday in response to the development of surface low pressure across Ontario. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and a slight pressure gradient should keep low temperatures above normal and noticeably warmer compared to last night. A few flurries are possible along and ahead of the front, mainly across upslope regions of the North Woods. Tonight: Mid to high level clouds will continue to stream across northern and eastern Maine from the west tonight ahead of a weakening cold front that will clip far northwestern areas by Sunday morning. Some flurries are moving across central and southern Aroostook, but should clear up soon. No major changes to forecast for this update. A warm front will lift north towards the area Thursday. Another area of low pressure will approach Tuesday and move into the Maritimes Wednesday. Low pressure will approach on Monday with a cold front moving through Monday night. A weak cold front will clip northern Maine Sunday morning. High pressure slides well offshore tonight. Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME (on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionĪrea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1213 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2023
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